On Friday 06-19-09 at 8:30 AM ET
Canada’s “Statistics Canada” released their monthly report of “Core Retail Sales” M/M which excludes the sale of autos, and “Retails Sales” M/M which represents total consumer spending. These 2 reports come about 50 days after the months end.
For this day, the “Core Retail Sales” previous report is a -0.2%, with a forecast of a -0.1%. The forecast shows an improvement in core sales and a possible improvement to the Canadian economy.
In contrast, the “Retail Sales” report paints a negative picture for the Canadian economy, the previous report was +0.3% with a forecast of 0.0%, which would be a decrease in over-all retail sales – this represents a conflict that traders will have to mull over, unless of course both reports are either positive or negative.
Here is what transpired – I monitored the USD/CAD currency pair and did a video capture starting about 5 minutes prior to the 2 reports being released as well as 5 minutes after release. So I am able to accurately relate what was going on. You can follow along on the chart above.
Until about 2 minutes prior to the report release, my broker spread was 4 PIPS, then is was increased to 5 PIPS, remained at 5 PIPS until 16 seconds prior to the report release, when it increased to 10 PIPS. It remained at 10 PIPS until about 43 seconds after the reports release when it dropped to 6 PIPS. The broker spread remained at 6 PIPS for about a minute and 36 seconds, then was reduced to 4.9 PIPS one minute and 36 seconds after release.
I was able to get “Core Retails Sales” actual report, which was a -0.5%, about 5 seconds after 8:30 AM, which was bad for the Canadian economy, the market is buying the USD and selling the CAD.
The “Retail Sales” actual report was not release until about 20 seconds after 8:30 AM, it also was a negative -08% report and re-enforced the “Core Retail Sales” report.
Both reports going against the Canadian economy helped to minimize any confusion for the FOREX traders.
The previous “Core Retail Sales” report was revised about 2 minutes and 38 seconds after 8:30 AM and came out at a -0.3% which increased the bad news even more.
There was no revision of the previous “Retails Sales” report.
As the report was released, the market spiked up about 27 PIPS the first minute before retracing, it then appeared to do some ranging while waiting for any revisions and to evaluate the new information.
It seems at about 8:37 AM, the market decided to get out of the CAD, and for the next 37 minutes the USD/CAD move up about 55 PIPS.
There were 2 other currency pairs that I monitored which had some good movement –
CAD/JPY and GBP/CAD.